What is your most memorable British political image of 2008? Boris Johnson waving (and thankfully not dropping) the Olympic flag in Beijing? The surprise return of Peter Mandelson wearing that red v neck jumper in Downing Street? Or perhaps the image of Harriet Harman daring to tour her own constituency dressed in a flak jacket and with a police escort? Throw in the wrongful arrest of an MP, a vote for 42 days internment (later to be withdrawn) and the worst recession in 80 years, and, as political events go, it has been something of an extraordinary year.
Record oil prices, the removal of Ken from City Hall, the worst local election results for Labour in 40 years, and the bizarre decision to remove the 10p tax rate which hit more than 5 million low-paid workers, and a spectacular by-election win for the Tories in Crewe and Nantwich, all added to what looked like being an early exit for Gordon Brown from Number 10 courtesy not of a general election but a Labour coup.
Brown’s salvation has been the recession, allowing him to move, in spirit, back to Number 11 and become a chancellor again. The demise of the economy is front page news and conveniently overshadows scrutiny of the very issues that were continuing to threaten his future. As seismic events in 2008 go, the scale of the recession itself is almost matched by Brown’s response to it; namely, to take us into debt like never before meaning UK borrowing will hit £1 trillion – more than all previous parliaments put together.
Turning to 2009, the recession will undoubtedly continue to play centre stage but so too could a general election. The nation’s anxiety over the economy will soon turn to anger as the impact of the downturn hits home. People will then want to apportion blame. Brown knows this and that’s why there is speculation of an early 09 election.
Regardless of the date, the Conservative Party enters the New Year more united, focused and prepared for a general election than at any time in the last 25 years. 2008 certainly has been an exceptional year – but may just turn out to be the warm up to an even more dramatic 2009!